Dimensions of the new disaster-proneness
Humanity is systematically taking apart the living systems that used to make the world relatively safe and predictable. And we have also wrapped the Earth in a blanket of GHG pollution that is trapping the sun’s heat here, mostly in the oceans that shape weather on land. This is a deadly combination, since wrecked ecosystems cannot protect us from storms, droughts and floods, and the hotter ocean is driving more storms, droughts and floods our way. Meanwhile, diseases are spreading in new conditions to new locations, and our crops are being harmed by chaotic and harsh weather. Dry heat-waves kill tens of thousands increasingly often, and moist heat-waves threaten far worse casualties. Fires consume forests and peatlands that have been degraded and dried out, often sweeping into built-up areas and choking us with smoke. The rising ocean pushes salt into our fields and aquifers, and billions live in cities close to the storm-bearing sea, densely packed in poor housing where pandemics can do most harm.
Disaster Risk Reduction Day: origins
The close links between ecosystem damage and disaster vulnerability took a while to be fully recognised. Rather, humanity’s efforts on disaster risk reduction (DRR) started mainly in response to the earthquakes that killed thousands in the 1980s. These struck El Asnam (Algeria, 1980), Irpinia (Italy, 1980), Golbaf (Iran, 1981), Dhamar (Yemen, 1982), Erzurum (Turkey, 1983), Mexico City (México, 1985), San Salvador (El Salvador, 1986), Napo Province (Ecuador, 1987), and Spitak (Soviet Armenia, 1988). Their cumulative effect was to make governments want to improve early warning, preparedness and response capacity. So in 1987, the UN General Assembly resolved to make the 1990s a decade for DRR. Two years later, it also agreed a Framework of Action and designated the second Wednesday in October (later changed to 13 October) as the International Day for DRR.
Yokohama
The 1980s were geologically quiet in Japan, relative to its history of major disasters back at least to the 1293 Kamakura earthquake and tsunami. But Japan was sensitive to the issue and in May 1994 it hosted the World Conference on Natural Disaster Reduction in the port city of Yokohama. This had been badly hit by the 1923 Great Kantō Earthquake, with over 140,000 fatalities. The conference produced the Yokohama Strategy, which covered all the main topics in DRR: risk assessment, civil preparedness, development planning, capacity building, early warning, inclusive participation, building design, environmental protection, and political leadership. Then in January 1995 an earthquake hit the city of Kobe in Hyōgo Prefecture, killing nearly 6,500 people.
ISDR and Hyōgo
In 2000, the UN adopted the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) to follow the 1990-1999 DRR Decade. Both the decade and the ISDR were influenced by the wave of international agreements on sustainable development and the global environment that had been forged in the 1990s. These included Agenda 21, the Millennium Development Goals and treaties on combating biodiversity loss, climate change and desertification. People were starting to see how environmental change, human drivers of disasters, and poverty and exclusion were all involved in the same complex global system. Revamping the Yokohama Strategy to take account of all this was the agenda for the second World Conference on Disaster Reduction in January 2005. This was again hosted by Japan, at Kobe in Hyōgo. The result was the Hyogo Framework, which sought to fix gaps in the coverage of issues of governance, specific risks and early warning, education and knowledge sharing, underlying risk factors (such as ecosystem health and climate change), and disaster preparedness.
Sendai
By March 2015 it was traditional that Japan would host the World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction in a city with relevant experience. Sendai in Miyagi Prefecture was chosen, which was where nearly 20,000 people had died in the 2011 Great Sendai (or Tōhoku) Earthquake. The tsunami that followed also wrecked the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear complex, causing massive leakage of radioactive material. The conference adopted the Sendai Framework, which sought to strengthen the Hyōgo Framework in addressing underlying disaster risk factors, building disaster resilience at all levels, and mobilising investment. An important factor was that climate change was now seen as a key driver of disaster risk, so the new framework put its hope into the work of the UNFCCC and the 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change. It sought to complement them by addressing disasters whether small or large, frequent or infrequent, sudden or slow, natural or man-made, and also by working on related environmental, technological and biological hazards and risks.
DRR Day themes
Each DRR Day has a theme to focus the hive-mind on an aspect of reducing disaster risk. That of DRR Day 2022 was early warning and early action for all. This was inspired by the Sendai Framework’s goal to roll out multi-hazard early warning systems (EWS) for many more areas and people. And early warning is important. Not only does 24 hours’ notice reduce the average cost of disasters by 30%, but EWS installed since the first DRR Day in 1990 have saved tens of thousands of people. Worldwide disaster deaths fell annually from 50,000 or more in the 1970s and 1980s to below 20,000 in the 2000s and 2010s, and halved again in 2020 and 2021. But as climate chaos builds alongside human numbers, the poor continue to fall through the cracks in protective arrangements. So DRR Day 2023 has as its theme fighting inequality for a resilient future. Here the focus is on another Sendai Framework concern: that poverty, inequality and discrimination are causes and consequences of growing disaster risk. The aim is promote greater investment in resilience-building among the poor and excluded, to reduce their exposure and vulnerability to harm.
Meanwhile, at the grass-roots
The way things are going, the UN estimates that soon there will be a major disaster somewhere every couple of days. Poor communities are often hurt most, because they tend to live in crowded, badly-built housing, or on land that is fragile, steep, flood-prone and at greater risk. Most disaster-related deaths occur in developing countries, and do most damage to their relatively fragile economies. In practical terms, emergency aid can take days to arrive, so it’s vital for people to be prepared. In practice, the most effective life-saving efforts are usually made by the people themselves, during and immediately after disasters, and both the UN and EU have programmes to help people prepare for and respond to disasters.
Making communities stronger: APELL and DIPECHO
The UN’s version is APELL, originally developed in response to the 1984 industrial disaster in Bhopal. It was later adapted to natural disasters, to build the capacity of local emergency services to cope before, during and after disasters, and to raise community awareness of risks and what they can do about them. The EU’s version is DIPECHO, launched in 1996 to help vulnerable communities in developing countries strengthen themselves. Its main goal is to ensure that disaster reduction measures are fused with wider national policies, for example on education, building codes and health.
Making communities stronger: anywhere and everywhere
In my book Surviving Climate Chaos, I describe how two small urban communities, in England and Scotland, each turned themselves from a scattering of strangers into a group that was capable of discussing risks and opportunities, acting collectively to protect and advance its own interests, and sharing information about its own capabilities. All it would take for either network to become a local climate change adaptation and disaster preparedness group would be to do some APELL or DIPECHO training. Communities that have increased their connectivity in this way, and have a record of who lives where, who does what, who needs what, and who can contribute what, are likely to cope much better than others during and immediately after disasters. And these simple arrangements work equally well anywhere and everywhere.
A long march in lengthening shadows
Our increasing disaster-proneness is driven and made harder to manage by a human failure to regulate our relationship with nature. Many people and organisations are at work to restore peace with nature and build a more viable future for life on Earth. Starting with the DRR Decade, Yokohama, ISDR, Hyogo and Sendai all helped the world to grow together, to learn and improve the baseline of good practice, and to raise expectations on leaders and of peoples. But the dynamic of climate change means that disasters will keep on coming. Increasing numbers of people will need to be helped, and enabled to help themselves and each other. A global commitment to reducing disaster risk is the least that caring governments can do, while efforts to solve root causes continue. That commitment is still there, people know it, and we are steadily getting better at it. But we cannot afford to forget that we are in a race against the climate and nature emergency, one that we must not lose and in which every community on Earth is an important actor.
© Julian Caldecott 2023